Score draw predictions: today's best 1-1 chances
DrawMeter editorial team · Updated
A score draw is a match that ends level with goals on the board: 1-1, 2-2, 3-3. Pools players care about it because the classic coupon normally rewards a score draw above a goalless one. The single most common score draw is 1-1, so this page ranks matches by the model's chance of exactly that score, today and over the weekend.
Today's matches ranked by the chance of 1-1
| Kick-off | Match | Chance of 1-1 | Likely score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talleres de Cordoba – Estudiantes de La PlataArgentine Liga Profesional | 14.2% | 1-1 (14.2%) | – | |
| Shimizu S-Pulse – Tokyo VerdyJ1 League | 14.1% | 0-0 (16.2%) | 0-1 | |
| Arbroath – Ayr UnitedScottish Championship | 14.1% | 1-1 (14.1%) | – | |
| West Bromwich Albion – MillwallEFL Championship | 14.1% | 1-1 (14.1%) | – | |
| KAC Marrakech – WydadBotola Pro | 14.1% | 0-0 (17.2%) | – | |
| Kharkiv – Karpaty LvivUkrainian Premier League | 14.0% | 1-0 (14.2%) | – | |
| Cádiz – Real OviedoLaLiga 2 | 14.0% | 1-1 (14.0%) | – | |
| Charlton Athletic – Sheffield UnitedEFL Championship | 13.9% | 1-1 (13.9%) | – | |
| Greenock Morton – StenhousemuirScottish Championship | 13.9% | 1-1 (13.9%) | – | |
| Widzew Lodz – Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa | 13.9% | 1-1 (13.9%) | – | |
| Birmingham City – Swansea CityEFL Championship | 13.8% | 1-1 (13.8%) | – | |
| Aberdeen – HibernianScottish Premiership | 13.8% | 1-1 (13.8%) | – | |
| Boyaca Chico – Internacional de BogotaColombian Primera A | 13.7% | 1-1 (13.7%) | 2-1 | |
| Leganes – Albacete BalompieLaLiga 2 | 13.7% | 1-1 (13.7%) | – | |
| Calcio Padova – EmpoliSerie B | 13.7% | 1-1 (13.7%) | – |
Reading the 1-1 table
The first number is the probability of the match finishing exactly 1-1 after 90 minutes. Next to it is the match's single likeliest score with its own chance; quite often that is 1-1 itself. When it is 0-0, the game is expected to be short of goals; when it is 1-0, 0-1 or 2-1, it leans a little towards one side. The result column fills in after full time.
Two things to keep in mind. First, these numbers belong to the model alone: the bookmaker's prices are blended into our match result chances but never into correct scores. Second, a 1-1 chance is always far smaller than a draw chance, because the draw also includes 0-0, 2-2 and every other level score. A match can have a decent draw chance and still a modest 1-1 chance if a goalless game is just as likely.
This weekend's best chances of 1-1
| Kick-off | Match | Chance of 1-1 | Likely score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talleres de Cordoba – Estudiantes de La PlataArgentine Liga Profesional | 14.2% | 1-1 (14.2%) | – | |
| Shimizu S-Pulse – Tokyo VerdyJ1 League | 14.1% | 0-0 (16.2%) | 0-1 | |
| Arbroath – Ayr UnitedScottish Championship | 14.1% | 1-1 (14.1%) | – | |
| West Bromwich Albion – MillwallEFL Championship | 14.1% | 1-1 (14.1%) | – | |
| KAC Marrakech – WydadBotola Pro | 14.1% | 0-0 (17.2%) | – | |
| Kharkiv – Karpaty LvivUkrainian Premier League | 14.0% | 1-0 (14.2%) | – | |
| Cádiz – Real OviedoLaLiga 2 | 14.0% | 1-1 (14.0%) | – | |
| Zorya Luhansk – LNZUkrainian Premier League | 14.0% | 0-0 (16.7%) | – | |
| Charlton Athletic – Sheffield UnitedEFL Championship | 13.9% | 1-1 (13.9%) | – | |
| Greenock Morton – StenhousemuirScottish Championship | 13.9% | 1-1 (13.9%) | – | |
| Widzew Lodz – Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa | 13.9% | 1-1 (13.9%) | – | |
| Angers SCO – NiceLigue 1 | 13.8% | 1-1 (13.8%) | – | |
| Birmingham City – Swansea CityEFL Championship | 13.8% | 1-1 (13.8%) | – | |
| Aberdeen – HibernianScottish Premiership | 13.8% | 1-1 (13.8%) | – | |
| Santa Clara – Gil VicentePrimeira Liga | 13.8% | 0-0 (17.4%) | – | |
| Le Havre – LorientLigue 1 | 13.8% | 1-1 (13.8%) | – | |
| Boyaca Chico – Internacional de BogotaColombian Primera A | 13.7% | 1-1 (13.7%) | 2-1 | |
| Leganes – Albacete BalompieLaLiga 2 | 13.7% | 1-1 (13.7%) | – | |
| Calcio Padova – EmpoliSerie B | 13.7% | 1-1 (13.7%) | – | |
| NK Istra – RijekaCroatian HNL | 13.7% | 1-1 (13.7%) | – |
Score draw or no-score draw
Whether a level game is more likely to finish 0-0 or 1-1 depends mostly on how many goals each side is expected to score. When both teams are expected to score close to one goal or more, 1-1 overtakes 0-0. When both attacks are blunt, the goalless draw closes the gap and can take over. Too many expected goals works the other way: a match with a lot of goals forecast has many ways to end, and every level score loses ground to wins on either side.
That is why the top of the 1-1 table is usually filled with tight, evenly matched games between sides that tend to score, not with the meanest defences. For the plain draw chance with fair odds and the bookmaker's price, see draw predictions.
How we pick
The model rates each team's attack and defence from about three seasons of results, computes a probability for every scoreline, and applies a correction to the lowest scores, 1-1 among them, where simple goal counts fit football worst. How we predict draws explains the steps. To see how score draws and no-score draws fit into the coupon, read how football pools work; for the week's scores and Pools Panel verdicts, go to pool results.
A correct score is a long shot by nature. Stake only what you can lose without trouble, never chase a near miss, and remember betting is for adults 18+.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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Frequently asked questions
What is a 1-1 correct score prediction worth?
The chance in the table is the model's probability of exactly 1-1. Even at the top of the list it is a small number, because a single correct score is much harder to hit than a draw of any kind. Fair odds are 1 divided by that chance.
What are pool score draws?
On the pools coupon a score draw is a match that ends level with goals, such as 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3. A 0-0 is a no-score draw. On the classic coupon score draws usually earn the most points, which is why they matter so much to pools players.
Are these score draw tips?
They are rankings, not tips. Each row tells you how likely the model thinks a 1-1 is, and a 1-1 at the top of the list will still fail most of the time.
Why rank by 1-1 and not by 2-2?
In most matches 1-1 is the likeliest of all the level scores, so it carries most of a match's score draw chance. A 2-2 needs four goals and turns up far less often.