Draw predictions today and this weekend
DrawMeter editorial team · Updated
A draw is the hardest of the three results to call: it is rarely the single most likely outcome of a match, yet plenty of matches end level every weekend. This page ranks today's matches, and then the weekend's, by the chance our model gives each of them to finish level. Next to every chance you get its fair odds and Megapari's own price for the draw, so the number can be weighed against the market.
Today's likeliest draws
| Kick-off | Match | Draw chance | Fair odds | Megapari | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAC Marrakech – WydadBotola Pro | 35% | 2.84 | 2.50 | – | |
| Moghreb de Tétouan – COD MeknesBotola Pro | 32% | 3.13 | 2.83 | – | |
| Shimizu S-Pulse – Tokyo VerdyJ1 League | 32% | 3.15 | 3.17 | 0-1 Lost | |
| Maghreb Fez – FUS RabatBotola Pro | 31% | 3.19 | 2.88 | – | |
| Argentinos Juniors – Club Atletico HuracanArgentine Liga Profesional | 31% | 3.20 | 3.05 | – | |
| Talleres de Cordoba – Estudiantes de La PlataArgentine Liga Profesional | 31% | 3.25 | 3.16 | – | |
| Eyupspor – KocaelisporSüper Lig | 31% | 3.26 | 3.50 | 0-2 Lost | |
| Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima – Independiente RivadaviaArgentine Liga Profesional | 31% | 3.27 | 2.81 | – | |
| Arbroath – Ayr UnitedScottish Championship | 30% | 3.28 | 2.99 | – | |
| Club Atletico Tigre – Club Atletico Sarmiento JuninArgentine Liga Profesional | 30% | 3.35 | 3.19 | 1-0 Lost |
Reading the draw table
- Draw chance is the model's probability that the match ends level after 90 minutes. Where the bookmaker prices the match, this figure is already a half-and-half blend of the model and the bookmaker's price with its margin removed.
- Fair odds are 1 divided by the draw chance. A 30% draw has fair odds of 3.33; a 25% draw, 4.00.
- Megapari shows the bookmaker's decimal price for X when its odds are in our data. When that price is longer than the fair odds, the market rates the draw a little lower than our number does. Because half of our number already comes from the market, the two seldom sit far apart.
- Result fills in once the match is played, with a badge showing whether the draw landed.
Kick-off times are given in WAT and change to your phone's local time when the page opens. Ghana is one hour behind Nigeria.
Likeliest draws this weekend
| Kick-off | Match | Draw chance | Fair odds | Megapari | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAC Marrakech – WydadBotola Pro | 35% | 2.84 | 2.50 | – | |
| Zorya Luhansk – LNZUkrainian Premier League | 32% | 3.13 | 3.14 | – | |
| Moghreb de Tétouan – COD MeknesBotola Pro | 32% | 3.13 | 2.83 | – | |
| Santa Clara – Gil VicentePrimeira Liga | 32% | 3.13 | 3.17 | – | |
| Shimizu S-Pulse – Tokyo VerdyJ1 League | 32% | 3.15 | 3.17 | 0-1 Lost | |
| Bukovyna Chernivtsi – Kolos KovalivkaUkrainian Premier League | 32% | 3.15 | 3.30 | – | |
| Maghreb Fez – FUS RabatBotola Pro | 31% | 3.19 | 2.88 | – | |
| Argentinos Juniors – Club Atletico HuracanArgentine Liga Profesional | 31% | 3.20 | 3.05 | – | |
| Talleres de Cordoba – Estudiantes de La PlataArgentine Liga Profesional | 31% | 3.25 | 3.16 | – | |
| Eyupspor – KocaelisporSüper Lig | 31% | 3.26 | 3.50 | 0-2 Lost | |
| America de Cali – Deportivo CaliColombian Primera A | 31% | 3.26 | 3.18 | – | |
| Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima – Independiente RivadaviaArgentine Liga Profesional | 31% | 3.27 | 2.81 | – | |
| Arbroath – Ayr UnitedScottish Championship | 30% | 3.28 | 2.99 | – | |
| Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba – Newell's Old BoysArgentine Liga Profesional | 30% | 3.32 | 3.06 | – | |
| CR Khemis Zemamra – Widad TemaraBotola Pro | 30% | 3.35 | 2.96 | – |
What pushes a match towards a draw
Two things matter most in the numbers: how evenly the sides are matched, and how many goals the match is expected to produce. When neither team is a clear favourite and both attacks are modest, the scorelines 0-0 and 1-1 carry a lot of weight and the draw chance climbs. When one side is far stronger, or both teams score freely, there are more ways for the match to tip one way, and the draw chance falls.
Some things change the picture that the model cannot see. A missing first-choice striker, a heavily rotated line-up in a cup week, a side that only needs a point, heavy rain on a poor pitch, a third match in seven days: any of these can make a draw more or less likely. Read team news before you rely on a number from this page.
Why no draw is ever sure
The highest draw chances of a day rarely go much above one in three. That is the nature of football: even two perfectly matched teams finish level less often than not. Lists that promise certain draws are guessing, and the guess is usually wrong. Treat every row here as a probability, keep stakes small, and stop when it stops being fun. Betting is for adults 18+ only.
How we pick
The draw chance comes from a goals model that rates every team's attack and defence, works out the chance of every scoreline, and adds up the level ones. How we predict draws explains each step and what the model leaves out. For draws with goals, see the score draw predictions. If you play the pools, the week's coupon with a draw chance for all 49 matches is on the home page, and the track record shows how our coupon picks have done.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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Frequently asked questions
What are draw (X) tips?
A bet on X pays only if the match ends level. The tables here are not tips in that sense; they rank the day's matches by the model's chance of a draw, so you can see which games are closest to a coin toss between the two sides.
Is there a sure draw prediction?
No. Even the highest draw chances in football usually sit around three in ten, which means the likeliest draw of the day fails far more often than it lands. Anyone selling a sure draw is selling something that does not exist.
How do 4 draws football tips today work out?
The chances multiply. Four draws each rated 30% all land together only about once in 123 tries, so a four-draw combination is a long shot even when every leg is among the day's likeliest.
Which is the best single draw prediction of the day?
The match at the top of today's table has the highest draw chance, but that only makes it the likeliest draw, not a likely one. Compare its fair odds with the bookmaker's price before deciding whether it is worth anything to you.
Can I see draw predictions for this weekend?
Yes. The second table ranks the fifteen likeliest draws from Saturday and Sunday together and fills in the scores as they are played.